For anyone who hasn't heard, after all my Facebooking and Twittering, the book is here! Buy it from Amazon today! Seriously, go do it right now. I'll wait.
What's the book about? Well, what if world peace was right around the corner? There's no doubt that countless crises consume the world. But The Secret Peace reveals thousands of pieces of evidence showing how history's true trend is one of advancing health, increasing nonviolence, receding poverty, and expanding equal rights. This isn't an excuse to pat ourselves on the back, however, but a powerful call to action to step up our efforts to spread peace worldwide.
I also want to say thanks for your support!
I'm so grateful for all the support I've received during the last four years of researching and writing The Secret Peace. (Take a look, you might be in the acknowledgments!) If you know me well and want to continue your support, please forward this email along to your friends and acquaintances. Post it to Facebook. Tweet it. Buy multiple copies of the book, so you can read it more than once. And of course it also makes a great gift.
Thanks again, I hope you enjoy it!
- Jesse
PS. Stay tuned for info about the release party!
Sunday, February 21, 2010
Sunday, January 31, 2010
Collaborative Consumption
Last week I spoke with Rachel Botsman & Roo Rogers, authors of the upcoming book What's Mine is Yours: The Rise of Collaborative Consumption. They are tracking the rise of new economies based on sharing, swapping, and lending - democratically distributing ownership. These new economies are being made possible by new technology, and have the potential to radically reduce the costs of certain goods for people as well as lower their environmental impact.
This concept has already upended certain industries. Netflix, which is basically just a better way of sharing DVDs that other people have watched, has eaten into DVD sales. Its ease of use and
recommendation/filtering engine make it superior to old video stores. Ebay and Craigslist have given people much more efficient ways to get rid of products they don't need anymore, without making them go to waste.
Botsman and Rogers point out that the Green movement often emphasizes personal sacrifice and guilt - not the most enticing bandwagon to jump onto. Instead, these new systems have the benefit of being in the users' own self-interest; in fact, that's the only way that they can work.
Several of these programs are on the cusp of going mainstream. Two that could have drastic environmental impact (for the better) are car-sharing (as Zipcar as done) and a smart energy grid, which would allow customers to sell back any energy they generate, and distribute it with less waste.
In the past, economies were small and local because not only was it difficult to communicate across large distances, it was impossible to trust people you didn't know. So, transactions were limited to people in your local circle and couldn't scale. Along came large corporations, which were able to take advantage of economies of scale and drastically mass-produce goods. Great, except in order for that to be efficient, all the goods had to be relatively similar commodities. This introduced a lot of waste as people settled for things not 100% perfect for them. In addition, buying your own copy of something (a lawn mower, say, or a DVD) was the most efficient thing to do, because it was the cheapest option. But the negative externality of environmental harm was never factored into the cost.
Today, technology can allow non-local trust. You can reliably enter into contracts with individuals around the globe, online. This is because people have ratings (think ebay or Amazon resellers.) A positive rating from 100 or 1,000 people becomes equivalent to a first-hand rating of someone we've actually met. Better, perhaps. What the authors predict, and argue for, is an aggregated reputation system across all your web sites and transactions. This becomes a reputation that you can't escape, just as you couldn't escape a bad reputation in a small town in the past. There would be no way to cheat that system.
Those are just some items the authors discussed, along with my own interpretation. I'm definitely looking forward to reading the book.
http://www.collaborativeconsumption.com/
This concept has already upended certain industries. Netflix, which is basically just a better way of sharing DVDs that other people have watched, has eaten into DVD sales. Its ease of use and
recommendation/filtering engine make it superior to old video stores. Ebay and Craigslist have given people much more efficient ways to get rid of products they don't need anymore, without making them go to waste.
Botsman and Rogers point out that the Green movement often emphasizes personal sacrifice and guilt - not the most enticing bandwagon to jump onto. Instead, these new systems have the benefit of being in the users' own self-interest; in fact, that's the only way that they can work.
Several of these programs are on the cusp of going mainstream. Two that could have drastic environmental impact (for the better) are car-sharing (as Zipcar as done) and a smart energy grid, which would allow customers to sell back any energy they generate, and distribute it with less waste.
In the past, economies were small and local because not only was it difficult to communicate across large distances, it was impossible to trust people you didn't know. So, transactions were limited to people in your local circle and couldn't scale. Along came large corporations, which were able to take advantage of economies of scale and drastically mass-produce goods. Great, except in order for that to be efficient, all the goods had to be relatively similar commodities. This introduced a lot of waste as people settled for things not 100% perfect for them. In addition, buying your own copy of something (a lawn mower, say, or a DVD) was the most efficient thing to do, because it was the cheapest option. But the negative externality of environmental harm was never factored into the cost.
Today, technology can allow non-local trust. You can reliably enter into contracts with individuals around the globe, online. This is because people have ratings (think ebay or Amazon resellers.) A positive rating from 100 or 1,000 people becomes equivalent to a first-hand rating of someone we've actually met. Better, perhaps. What the authors predict, and argue for, is an aggregated reputation system across all your web sites and transactions. This becomes a reputation that you can't escape, just as you couldn't escape a bad reputation in a small town in the past. There would be no way to cheat that system.
Those are just some items the authors discussed, along with my own interpretation. I'm definitely looking forward to reading the book.
http://www.collaborativeconsumption.com/
Friday, January 22, 2010
Good (health) news from Massachusetts
The news is focused on Massachusetts this week, so it made me remember this tidbit below. From The Week magazine:
And of course, this is during a time in which smoking rates in America - as in many developed countries - have been dropping for decades. Currently, less than 19 percent of American adults are smokers, the lowest percentage since at least World War I. In 1964, for example, when Surgeon General Luther Terry wrote a landmark report on the hazards of smoking, 42 percent of Americans were smokers.
Smoking has plunged 26 percent among lower-income smokers in Massachusetts, after just two years of an unusual state program targeting tobacco use. Patients enrolled in the state's MassHealth insurance program receive free counseling and medications to help them stop smoking. Anti-smoking advocates said the results suggest that expanding the Massachusetts prgogram nationwide could save tens of thousands of lives. "These findings are extraordinary," said Matthew Myers of the Campaign for Tobacco-Free Kids. "They hjave major public-health implications as Congress is debating health-care reform."
And of course, this is during a time in which smoking rates in America - as in many developed countries - have been dropping for decades. Currently, less than 19 percent of American adults are smokers, the lowest percentage since at least World War I. In 1964, for example, when Surgeon General Luther Terry wrote a landmark report on the hazards of smoking, 42 percent of Americans were smokers.
Wednesday, December 2, 2009
"Back in my day, we worked in the coal mine every morning before preschool. And we liked it!"
An excerpt from my book, a stand-alone piece of good news:
"Another benefit to globalization is the reduction in child labor, as parents become more prosperous and move away from agrarian work. In 1980, an average of 23% of ten to fourteen year old children in developing countries were working. By 2000, that number had dropped in half, to 12%. In China alone, those twenty years saw a drop from 30% of children laboring to a mere 8%. Remember, going back a century ago—let alone longer ago than that—many countries had a majority of their children out working in the fields."
It's impressive that economic growth in the past 30 years (yes, world growth from the past 30 years is still very net positive despite the current economic crisis) is perhaps even more impressive than recorded, when you factor in this removal of people from the labor force at the same time as the growth.
"Another benefit to globalization is the reduction in child labor, as parents become more prosperous and move away from agrarian work. In 1980, an average of 23% of ten to fourteen year old children in developing countries were working. By 2000, that number had dropped in half, to 12%. In China alone, those twenty years saw a drop from 30% of children laboring to a mere 8%. Remember, going back a century ago—let alone longer ago than that—many countries had a majority of their children out working in the fields."
It's impressive that economic growth in the past 30 years (yes, world growth from the past 30 years is still very net positive despite the current economic crisis) is perhaps even more impressive than recorded, when you factor in this removal of people from the labor force at the same time as the growth.
Thursday, November 19, 2009
Book is almost here!
I've been working around the clock (literally) to complete the publication of my book, The Secret Peace. This has been a 3-and-a-half-year process, and a really crazy ride sometimes. I'm proud to say that it's nearly complete, and that the book should be available by the end of the year.
Here's some promo text from the back cover of the book. It's a highlight of the main theme of the book. What's fun are some of the top pieces of "good news" that are included:
Recession. Afghanistan. Global warming. There's no doubt that countless dire crises consume the world. And yet, positive change is also all around us, under the media’s radar. Here is evidence of history’s true trend: a convincing picture of declining war, advancing health, equal rights, revolutionary technology, and more, including the surprising reasons why peace is unfolding. This powerful shift in perspective—not trite “positive thinking” but a realistic look at a hidden truth—is needed now more than ever. The Secret Peace isn’t an excuse to pat ourselves on the back, but a powerful call to action to step up our efforts to spread peace to all corners of the earth.
Did you know?
The world’s nuclear weapons have decreased by almost 75%.
Global life expectancy is 68 years and rising fast.
40% of people in Africa now own a mobile phone.
The world’s literacy rate is 83%.
The number of people killed in wars has been dropping for decades.
And wait until you hear the rest of the good news ...
Here's some promo text from the back cover of the book. It's a highlight of the main theme of the book. What's fun are some of the top pieces of "good news" that are included:
Recession. Afghanistan. Global warming. There's no doubt that countless dire crises consume the world. And yet, positive change is also all around us, under the media’s radar. Here is evidence of history’s true trend: a convincing picture of declining war, advancing health, equal rights, revolutionary technology, and more, including the surprising reasons why peace is unfolding. This powerful shift in perspective—not trite “positive thinking” but a realistic look at a hidden truth—is needed now more than ever. The Secret Peace isn’t an excuse to pat ourselves on the back, but a powerful call to action to step up our efforts to spread peace to all corners of the earth.
Did you know?
The world’s nuclear weapons have decreased by almost 75%.
Global life expectancy is 68 years and rising fast.
40% of people in Africa now own a mobile phone.
The world’s literacy rate is 83%.
The number of people killed in wars has been dropping for decades.
And wait until you hear the rest of the good news ...
Friday, August 28, 2009
Jessica Alba is going to have more babies than you
My thesis with this blog is that everything in the world is getting better. Well, now we know that the human race is even getting more beautiful. In a valiant effort to verify our superficiality, researchers discovered that women rated as "attractive" tended to have 16 percent more children than everyone else, and more girls than boys. This adds up fairly quickly.
My most-likely-wrong math tells me that if we assumed 1% of the population was beautiful at some point in the past (a very conservative estimate) and reproducing at 1.16x the rate of everyone else, after 46 generations, you'd have more than 90% of the population beautiful. Let's say it's 25 years per generation, which means this would take a little more than 1,000 years. But, in the meantime, the most beautiful people out of the now slightly-more-beautiful pool are still reproducing faster. I would need some sort of statistics or calculus class at this point, but suffice to say, I imagine women are much more beautiful now than they were 1,000 or even 100 years ago. (And that's even ignoring the fact that everyone now is healthier, taller, bathes regularly, and has all their teeth.) Isn't this solid proof that the world is getting better?
And what about the other half of us humans? Handsome men showed no difference in their reproductive rates in the study, thus proving that no one really cares what men look like, and that we should just go ahead and wear sweatpants into the office every day. I laugh at the guys on Mad Men, with their slicked-back hair and their fancy ties. Suckers.
photo: Jessica Alba on her way to having 16% more babies than you.
source: "A planet full of Angelina Jolies," The Week, August 14, 2009, p. 22.
If anyone is gooder at math, chime in.
My most-likely-wrong math tells me that if we assumed 1% of the population was beautiful at some point in the past (a very conservative estimate) and reproducing at 1.16x the rate of everyone else, after 46 generations, you'd have more than 90% of the population beautiful. Let's say it's 25 years per generation, which means this would take a little more than 1,000 years. But, in the meantime, the most beautiful people out of the now slightly-more-beautiful pool are still reproducing faster. I would need some sort of statistics or calculus class at this point, but suffice to say, I imagine women are much more beautiful now than they were 1,000 or even 100 years ago. (And that's even ignoring the fact that everyone now is healthier, taller, bathes regularly, and has all their teeth.) Isn't this solid proof that the world is getting better?
And what about the other half of us humans? Handsome men showed no difference in their reproductive rates in the study, thus proving that no one really cares what men look like, and that we should just go ahead and wear sweatpants into the office every day. I laugh at the guys on Mad Men, with their slicked-back hair and their fancy ties. Suckers.
photo: Jessica Alba on her way to having 16% more babies than you.source: "A planet full of Angelina Jolies," The Week, August 14, 2009, p. 22.
If anyone is gooder at math, chime in.
Wednesday, August 5, 2009
More good trends than you could possibly imagine fitting in only two paragraphs
Many alleged dangers in the West are secretly trending toward peace, despite everyday worries and media scares. Deaths by fire have declined 50 percent in twenty years, thanks to smoke alarms and other building safety measures. Teen pregnancy is way down in America, which is mostly due to increased birth control, not abortions; the teen abortion rate has been dropping significantly too, as has the overall number of abortions. In fact, the percentage of teenagers having sex has actually decreased over the years, and teens are waiting longer before having sex, not that you'd know it from a panicky media. As reported by The New York Times:
"There's no doubt that the public perception is that things are getting worse, and that kids are having sex younger and much wilder than they ever were," said Kathleen A. Bogle, an assistant professor of sociology and criminal justice at La Salle University. "But when you look at the data, that's not the case." … "I give presentations nationwide where I'm showing people that the virginity rate in college is higher than you think and the number of partners is lower than you think and hooking up more often than not does not mean intercourse," Dr. Bogle said. "But so many people think we're morally in trouble, in a downward spiral and teens are our of control. It's very difficult to convince people otherwise."
The rates of teens dropping out of high school, smoking, and drinking have also been declining for a decade. For example, the percentage of 12th-grade boys who reported binge drinking (having five or more alcoholic beverages in a row in the past two weeks) dropped from 52 percent in 1980 to 29 percent in 2007; girls’ rates during that time dropped from 30 percent to 22 percent. Methamphetamine use in the U.S. has dropped significantly in the past few years; the proportion of 18-year-olds using the drug in the past year dropped by two-thirds since 1999, thanks mainly to education efforts. This success surprisingly curtailed a well-publicized growing crisis with crystal meth in rural America. The number of chronically homeless people in the U.S. dropped 30 percent in just two years, from 2005 to 2007, thanks to a new government “housing first” strategy. Traffic accidents—the leading cause of death among young adults—are dropping precipitously. Around 42,000 Americans died in car crashes in 2002, compared to 52,000 in 1970, even though the population density and number of cars rose dramatically. Workplace fatalities are down, too. Safer technology helps prevent accidents, and then our healthcare advances allow a higher number of those who do have accidents to pull through.
And trust me, there's a lot more good news where this came from!
PS. I have sources for all these, of course. If anyone's interested, let me know.
"There's no doubt that the public perception is that things are getting worse, and that kids are having sex younger and much wilder than they ever were," said Kathleen A. Bogle, an assistant professor of sociology and criminal justice at La Salle University. "But when you look at the data, that's not the case." … "I give presentations nationwide where I'm showing people that the virginity rate in college is higher than you think and the number of partners is lower than you think and hooking up more often than not does not mean intercourse," Dr. Bogle said. "But so many people think we're morally in trouble, in a downward spiral and teens are our of control. It's very difficult to convince people otherwise."
The rates of teens dropping out of high school, smoking, and drinking have also been declining for a decade. For example, the percentage of 12th-grade boys who reported binge drinking (having five or more alcoholic beverages in a row in the past two weeks) dropped from 52 percent in 1980 to 29 percent in 2007; girls’ rates during that time dropped from 30 percent to 22 percent. Methamphetamine use in the U.S. has dropped significantly in the past few years; the proportion of 18-year-olds using the drug in the past year dropped by two-thirds since 1999, thanks mainly to education efforts. This success surprisingly curtailed a well-publicized growing crisis with crystal meth in rural America. The number of chronically homeless people in the U.S. dropped 30 percent in just two years, from 2005 to 2007, thanks to a new government “housing first” strategy. Traffic accidents—the leading cause of death among young adults—are dropping precipitously. Around 42,000 Americans died in car crashes in 2002, compared to 52,000 in 1970, even though the population density and number of cars rose dramatically. Workplace fatalities are down, too. Safer technology helps prevent accidents, and then our healthcare advances allow a higher number of those who do have accidents to pull through.
And trust me, there's a lot more good news where this came from!
PS. I have sources for all these, of course. If anyone's interested, let me know.
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